Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Israeli Attack on Iran Would be Bad for Israel and Would Not Stop Iran's Nuclear Program - Oxford Research Group

Will Israeli F-16's attack Iran's nuclear facilities?
I have just come across a very interesting study by the UK-based Oxford Research Group.  Like an earlier post I wrote here, the Oxford Group's study looks at some of the results and consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.  The conclusion of the study is that an Israeli strike would not succeed, and would have serious repercussions for Israel and the region as Iran found a variety of ways to retaliate.

Some highlights of options for Iranian retaliation include:
  • An Israeli attack would cause some damage, but would not succeed in completely knocking out Iran's  nuclear program;
  • The Iranians would immediately withdraw from the NPT - the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty;
  • Iran would then immediately give the highest priority to continuing to develop their nuclear program; 
  • Missile attacks on Israel using conventionally-armed rockets;
  • Iran would close the Straits of Hormuz.  Even if this were only done briefly, it would cause a sharp rise in oil prices and be a reminder of Iran’s leverage over Gulf shipping routes. Any sustained price rise would have a potentially catastrophic impact on the global economy;
  • Paramilitary and/or missile attacks on western Gulf oil production, processing and transportation facilities;
  • A war between Iran's Lebanese client Hezbollah and Israeli could ensure, and could turn into a wider regional conflict.
Here is the full Oxford Group Study.

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