Thursday, May 24, 2012

Part 2 of Israel, Iran and Hezbollah: Israel's Possible Response

Lebanese soldiers patrol the border with Israel
Israeli army troops on the border with Lebanon
As I noted in Part I of this mini-series on Hezbollah and Israel, it is quite possible that Iran would order its client Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack Israel if Israel launched an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities.  Looking at the situation, Israel must be aware that if they attack Iran, Iran would strike back directly against Israel, likely via terrorism against Israeli targets worldwide as well as with its own inventory.

The question I raise, however, is how Israel will respond to an attack by Hezbollah against them, particularly if Hezbollah targets Israeli population centers?  From Israel's perspective, as long as they do not attack Hezbollah, they would not expect Hezbollah to attack them.  The answer to how Israel would act if there is another war between the Israelis and Hezbollah comes through loud and clear in a recent article by Con Coughlin in the UK paper Daily Telegraph.  Coughlin notes that while Israel and Hezbollah essentially fought to a draw in their last war in 2006, in the next conflict Israel is determined to wipe out Hezbollah's military capabilities completely:
During the last conflict, Israel was forced to agree to a ceasefire because of the international outcry over its air raids against Lebanese targets, such as Beirut airport. Next time, though, the Israelis are determined not to end the conflict until Hizbollah is completely destroyed as a fighting force...This time, the war is going to last for as long as it takes to destroy Hizbollah,” said an Israeli officer. “We will not make the same mistake of allowing them to escape.”
With Hezbollah possessing 60,000 missiles, as compared to 10,000 in 2006, and with Israel committed to doing whatever it takes to destroy Hezbollah, it is clear that the next conflict between the two will be brutal and bloody.  Here is the Con Coughlin article

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