Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Part 1 of Israel, Iran and Hezbollah: If Israel Bombs Iran Will Hezbollah Attack Israel?

Hassan Nasrallah is the leader of Shiite militia Hezbollah
As I noted in a post from a few days ago, the signs out of Israel are mixed to say the least, with the Israeli leadership "locked down" regarding a possible Israeli attack on Iran.  It occurred to me that while there are numerous news reports on how Israeli might attack Iran, there is not nearly the same amount of information available on how Iran might retaliate.

One thing which is highly probable though is that Iran would order its client Hezbollah in Lebanon to launch an attack on Israel if Israel bombs Iran's nuclear stations.  I am planning to do a five part series on the possible issues and concerns regarding an Israeli-Hezbollah war.  While Hezbollah is nominally independent of Iran, in reality Iran provides all of the funding and support necessary for Hezbollah and it is highly likely Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would launch Hezbollah's missiles at Israel if ordered to do so by the Iranian leadership.  Iran is the leading Shiite state in the region, and Hezbollah is a Shiite militia group in Lebanon.  As those interested in the region might recall, Israel and Hezbollah fought a short but destructive war in 2006, during which Israel heavily bombed Hezbollah's positions in South Lebanon while Hezbollah launched streams of short-range missiles at Israeli population centers.

Just today, there was a worrying report in the left of center Israeli newspaper Haaretz noting that the Israeli military (IDF) now believes that Hezbollah has over 60,000 missiles, or six times what they had in the 2006 war.  The article also notes that both Syria also has 3,000 missiles covering anywhere from 70 - 700 kms. Needless to say, the chance of a miscalculation that might set the Middle East aflame is unfortunately quite high. For those interested in the full Haaretz article on Hezbollah's missiles, here it is


  1. Interesting post...I personally believe that Ahmadinejad's regime would have to hit Israel itself, via a missile attack or by some other means, in the event Israel bombs Iran's nuke facilities. Ahmadinejad is struggling to stay maintain his grasp on power; he can't afford to be seen as weak. Retaliating against Israel via a Hezbollah attack would not be a strong enough response to mollify his compatriots.

  2. Absolutely agree Anthony. I am certain Hezbollah would be only one component of Iran's retaliation. They would certainly try terrorist attacks around the world, and would likely fire missiles at Israel as well.