Sunday, July 22, 2012

A Separate Alawite State in Syria Existed Once Before

A precedent exists for a separate Alawite state in Syria
As I noted in my previous post, I think it is increasingly likely that a separate Alawite state in Syria is becoming a fallback position for the the Assad regime.  The rebels have already demonstrated the capability to strike directly at the regime's power centers in Damascus, and given the huge numerical advantage the Sunnis possess, it seems only a matter of time until the Alawite-controlled regime is overthrown by the largely Sunni rebel forces.  The demographics of Syria, remember, are approximately as follows:

  • 70% Sunni
  • 12% Alawite
  • 10% Christian
  • 8% a variety of other smaller sects such as Druze and Shiite muslims
One very interesting point is that there was already once a separate Alawite state in Syria. This occurred under the French mandate from 1920 - 1946.  The French ruled Syria and what is now Lebanon at the time, and as you can see, they actually did establish a separate Alawite territory.  This is the exact area where the Alawites may well look to establish their own separate state in the present conflict when the regime falls.  

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