Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Why Israel Attacking Iran Could be a Bad Idea for the Israelis Themselves

An Israeli Attack on Iran's Nuclear Program Could Have Negative Affects on Israel
Great article from Juan Cole of CNN on 10 reasons why attacking Iran is a really bad idea.  What I found interesting is that he looks at this strictly from an Israeli perspective, not an American one.  Some of Juan's reasons are obvious to all - a spike in oil prices, counter-attacks by Iran, Iran's client Hezbollah likely launching missiles into Israel.  However, some of Juan's points were quite intriguing and have not been discussed much in the media: Syria could be drawn in, effectively ending the uprising there; Egypt would face popular pressure to terminate the Camp David accords with Israel; Shiite Iraq would become radicalized and would likely become much more active in its support of Hezbollah and Iran.  As the war drums continue to beat, one can only hope that Bibi Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have taken the time to fully think through the strategic implications of what they may do.  Not only the short-term implications - such as retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah - but some of the broader strategic implications for their position in the region.  Is it really sensible for Israel to suffer these strategic setbacks for an attack which may not even be successful, but by all accounts would likely set back the Iranian nuclear program by only a year or two at the most?       


  1. Right now, Iranian sources and/or some other group having real or imagined grievances against Israel, have felt the need to channel their anger into violence against Israeli targets and personnel.
    A similar reaction, no doubt, will be observed in many Israelis of a like-minded disposition.

    Such a familiar, sad story, one that has echoed down every century since mankind has walked this earth. Even today, in this, the 21st century, with all its resources and innovations, some ancient verities still hold sway; the mind of Man, for all its advances in other areas, has yet to grapple successfully with this baser aspect of his nature. So ingrained, so instinctive has it become that one has to wonder if it will ever be laid aside and its dominance reduced to more manageable levels.

    If we were minded to make it so, then we must think the matter through in logical terms.

    The instinct is a powerful one; it will require another of even greater power to overcome it. And, in the provision of such a remedy, this is where the true measure of men may be found.


  2. Thanks for the comment John. I went to your blog noted below. Looked interesting, but been awhile since you posted! Josh